SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
| TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI |
TRACK FORECAST GRAPHICS AND SATELLITE
IMAGES COURTESY OF NRL/MONTEREY. TRACK
FORECASTS COURTESY OF JTWC.
IMAGES COURTESY OF NRL/MONTEREY. TRACK
FORECASTS COURTESY OF JTWC.
ACTIVITY SUMMARY SINCE 01 July 2011
NUMBER OF WARNED CYCLONES IN JANUARY: 5
AVERAGE NUMBER OF CYCLONES IN JANUARY: 5.7
TOTAL NUMBER OF WARNED CYCLONES SINCE 01 JULY 2011: 9
AVERAGE NUMBER OF CYCLONES SINCE 01 JULY: 12.4
ACTIVITY SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 2012: There were 5 Tropical Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere in
January all in the SIO which is slightly below normal for the month. Cold phase ENSO conditions resulted in an
unfavorable environment in the South Pacific. A late starting Monsoon resulted in a slower than average start to
the season. Additionally, we are still in the Global minimum for TC activity which was most pronounced last
year with only 66 storms being observed compared to an average of 85. The strongest storm of the month wasa
TC08S (Funso) which developed in the Mozambique channel on the 19th performing a loop off the Mozambique
coast and then peaking at 120kt as it moved SE through the Channel becoming extratropical on the 28th.
TC09S (Iggy) had an unusual track developing well west of Austrailia on the 25th and recurving peaking at 65 kt
before becoming a remnant low over cold water just before landfall south of Perth on 2 February. Usually this
cold water prevents TC landfalls much as the cold water off California does. TC 06S (Heidi) made landfall near
Port Hedland on the 11th one day after forming.
NUMBER OF WARNED CYCLONES IN JANUARY: 5
AVERAGE NUMBER OF CYCLONES IN JANUARY: 5.7
TOTAL NUMBER OF WARNED CYCLONES SINCE 01 JULY 2011: 9
AVERAGE NUMBER OF CYCLONES SINCE 01 JULY: 12.4
ACTIVITY SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 2012: There were 5 Tropical Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere in
January all in the SIO which is slightly below normal for the month. Cold phase ENSO conditions resulted in an
unfavorable environment in the South Pacific. A late starting Monsoon resulted in a slower than average start to
the season. Additionally, we are still in the Global minimum for TC activity which was most pronounced last
year with only 66 storms being observed compared to an average of 85. The strongest storm of the month wasa
TC08S (Funso) which developed in the Mozambique channel on the 19th performing a loop off the Mozambique
coast and then peaking at 120kt as it moved SE through the Channel becoming extratropical on the 28th.
TC09S (Iggy) had an unusual track developing well west of Austrailia on the 25th and recurving peaking at 65 kt
before becoming a remnant low over cold water just before landfall south of Perth on 2 February. Usually this
cold water prevents TC landfalls much as the cold water off California does. TC 06S (Heidi) made landfall near
Port Hedland on the 11th one day after forming.
Tropical Cyclone TC 10P (Jasmine) is located
near 21.3S 176.3W with winds of 35kt. It is
moving SW at 1 kt and is expected to turn SE with
no change in intensity dissipating in 72 hours due to
shear and cold water. Satellite shows that the
convection has remained disorganized with a
partially exposed LLCC and continued stable air
entraining into the system.
Tropical Cyclone TC 12S (Giovanni) is located
near 19.3 S 45.3E with winds of 35kt. It is moving
W at 14 kt and is expected to move SW-SE and
peak at 80kt in 72 hours weakening to 65 kt in
120 hours as it encounters cooler water and
increased shear. The storm is emerging from its
passage over Madagascar and is severely
disrupted. Conditions favor redevelopment but the
inner core will have to redevelop first for it to do
so.
Tropical Cyclone TC13S is locate near 14.3S
87.9E with winds of 35 kt. It is moving W at 15kt
and is expected to move WSW and peak at 95kt
in 120 hours. Satellite shows disorganized
convection.
near 21.3S 176.3W with winds of 35kt. It is
moving SW at 1 kt and is expected to turn SE with
no change in intensity dissipating in 72 hours due to
shear and cold water. Satellite shows that the
convection has remained disorganized with a
partially exposed LLCC and continued stable air
entraining into the system.
Tropical Cyclone TC 12S (Giovanni) is located
near 19.3 S 45.3E with winds of 35kt. It is moving
W at 14 kt and is expected to move SW-SE and
peak at 80kt in 72 hours weakening to 65 kt in
120 hours as it encounters cooler water and
increased shear. The storm is emerging from its
passage over Madagascar and is severely
disrupted. Conditions favor redevelopment but the
inner core will have to redevelop first for it to do
so.
Tropical Cyclone TC13S is locate near 14.3S
87.9E with winds of 35 kt. It is moving W at 15kt
and is expected to move WSW and peak at 95kt
in 120 hours. Satellite shows disorganized
convection.
