EPAC
TRACK FORECAST GRAPHICS AND SATELLITE
IMAGES COURTESY OF NRL/MONTEREY.
TRACK FORECASTS COURTESY OF NHC.
EPAC Hurricane season has ended. Daily updates
will resume on May 15th unless earlier needed.
SEASON ACTIVITY SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 2011:
NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS THROUGH 31 OCTOBER : 11
AVERAGE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS THROUGH 31 OCTOBER: 15.7
NUMBER OF HURRICANES THROUGH 31 OCTOBER: 10
AVERAGE NUMBER OF HURRICANES THROUGH 31 OCTOBER: 9.0
ACTIVITY SUMMARY FOR October 2011: There were two named systems in EPAC during October both of
which became a hurricane which compares with the average for October of 2.0 and 1.1 respectively. This is
above normal for total occurrence when TD12E is included in the total. With one of the hurricanes being a
major, the total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the month was 50% above normal. Curiously, although
total warned and named systems is below normal, the number of major hurricanes is well above seasonal
normals as is the percentage of storms that have become hurricanes. An active MJO impulse seemed to have
been the trigger for the active October following a quiet September.
HR 10E (Irwin) formed near 11.0N 119.0W on the 6th and peaked at 80kt on the 7th and weakened thereafter
due to shear from the outflow from developing hurricane 11E (Jova) as well as stable dry air entraining into the
storm. It followed a very erratic track due to weak steering and interaction with Jova. Irwin eventually looped
off the Mexican coast and headed SW into the deep tropics where it dissipated on 16th.
HR 11E (Jova) formed on the 6th near 10.0N 105.1W. The storm followed a recurve tracked towards the SW
coast of Mexico. The storm peaked at 110kt on the 10th and weakened as it approached landfall. In the final
hours before landfall satellite indicated some reintensification of the compact inner wind field. The storm made
landfall early on the 12th near Emilliano Zapata south of Puerto Vallarta with warned 85kt sustained winds while
chaser video from the wind max core indicated higher winds. Jova, being a small storm quickly dissipated
inland on the 12th.
TD 12E formed just off the Mexican coast at 14.7N 93.6W on the 12th with 30 kt winds and quickly moved
inland where it dissipated on the same day.
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